Advertisement

INTERNATIONAL PREVIEW: Bet on the coaches staying ahead of refs/lawmakers

golf14 November 2024 06:26
By:Gavin Rich
Share
article image
Carlos Alcaraz © Getty Images

The coaches staying ahead of the law makers and the referees by dictating how rugby should evolve with the changes foisted on them might be a bigger certainty in the middle weekend of the Autumn Series than choosing the winner in the two big games.

England host South Africa in what is being billed as a grudge match and has also become a desperate shot at redemption for the hosts at the Allianz Stadium (Twickenham) and then France host a resurgent New Zealand in what should be an absorbing and, for those who are not neutrals, tension ranked Saturday night double header.

The Boks, because they tend to find a way to win and England have made a habit in recent times of finding a way to lose, will be strong favourites in London. They weren’t that flush against Scotland in Edinburgh last week but still won by 17 points against a team England haven’t beaten in their last four visits.

England also lost to Australia last week, and while the Wallabies have shown improvements recently, the Boks beat them with a considerable degree of comfort, and with changed up and experimental teams, twice in this year’s Castle Lager Rugby Championship. Both those games were home fixtures for the Wallabies.

Yet England were close enough to beating New Zealand in three games this year, two away and one at home, plus France for them to expect to be competitive. They also recovered from their latest defeat at Murrayfield back in February by inflicting defeat on Ireland at Twickenham a week later. If you can beat Ireland, you have a chance against anyone, including the Boks.

KIWIS ON CUSP OF CONFIRMING DIFFERENT NARRATIVE

Before the Autumn Series started you’d have made the French strong favourites to win in Paris. The All Blacks have a particularly tough tour, and after their opener against Japan in Tokyo they’ve played England and Ireland and now come up against a France team that will be eager to put the disappointment of last season and failure in a home World Cup behind them.

Not even the most die-hard All Black supporters were holding out much hope of them going through such a tough tour, to be concluded against Italy on the last weekend, unbeaten. Yet the close win against England and then the more comfortable one against Ireland has grown their belief, not least because they are now doing what they failed to do in South Africa during the Championship - they are closing down games in the final quarter.

Suddenly the narrative around this first post-World Cup and first Razor Robertson year for New Zealand rugby is changing, and a win in Paris against the team that beat them there in last year’s World Cup opener will put the seal on that. A win for the All Blacks and for the Boks in London earlier in the day will also confirm the supremacy of southern hemisphere rugby, at least for now, as neither team should lose their final tour games (the Boks finish against struggling Wales).

Australia’s win against England at Twickenham was seen as a breakthrough moment for the Wallabies but they will need to confirm that in their remaining matches of the tour, starting with Sunday’s clash in Cardiff. Argentina, who ran roughshod over Italy a week ago, may be the southern team under the most threat this week as they face up to the now deposed World Rugby No 1 team, Ireland.

ADAPTATION TO LAW ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MORE EVIDENT


Some of the teams are one week into the Autumn Series and others are into their second, so this week’s games should bring more clarity of the adaptation of the different nations to the law changes applying to protection at kick receipt. Their attack coach Tony Brown reckons it is a good thing as it will make attack more dynamic, but the Boks did appear to struggle a bit with it at times last week, while some of the All Blacks and the Kiwi pundits were confused post-Dublin.

The initial impression of some is that it will make contestable kicking more prevalent, which has never had universal appeal. Yet another case of World Rugby coming up for a change that will make the game more appealing yet could do the exact opposite? Perhaps.

One thing you can be certain of though is that the clever coaches, and Rassie Erasmus is probably the cleverest of them all, will find a way to make the changes work for them. It’s always been thus and one of the reasons rugby’s rulers are constantly changing the laws and in doing so sowing confusion is because the race between them and the coaches has always been an unequal one.

Ever since the 1990s, when the influx of rugby league ideas started to change the way the sport was played and led to a period of Australian success but changed the aesthetic shape of rugby, it has been the coaches who have been proactive in their quest to get a winning edge, while World Rugby, formerly the IRB, has been reactive.

REFS ALSO A FEW STEPS BEHIND THE COACHES

The referees and their ruling bodies are also lagging far behind the coaches and no match for most of the more innovative mentors of the successful international and club/provincial teams when it comes to the battle of wits that has effectively been going on for several decades.
So what will happen this weekend? There’s going to be adaptation, you can be sure of it. For the two big southern hemisphere teams it won’t just be around how far they go with their kick attack but also how they deal with what may be a new northern trend of attacking the breakdown and lying all over the ball in the process, thus putting the halfbacks under pressure. It happened both in Dublin and Edinburgh last weekend.

Overall though the thing you can feel most certain about, for it is a trend that goes back a long way, is that in time the coaches will find a way to adapt that may produce a picture very different to the one that World Rugby envisaged when their changes were in the concept stage. The coaches will determine how the product presents, as they have done since the start of the professional era and just before that.

Weekend international rugby fixtures

Friday

Ireland v Argentina (Dublin, 22:10)

Saturday

Scotland v Portugal (Edinburgh, 17:10)

England v South Africa (London, 19:40)

France v New Zealand (Paris, 22:10)

Sunday

Italy v Georgia (Rome, 15:40)

Wales v Australia (Cardiff, 18:10)

Advertisement