All Black coach’s decision has not loosened the noose

The All Blacks reckon they have the game and the players to beat South Africa, which is hardly news. It would be news if they said they had no clue and they were coming to South Africa for their two test mini series against the Springboks with no hope.

But while the confidence portrayed by the public posturing of the All Blacks’ under pressure coach Ian Foster ahead of the games in Nelspruit and Johannesburg that form part of the 2022 edition of the Castle Lager Rugby Championship may be genuine as much as it is what you would expect, what happens if it proves misplaced? What happens if instead of progressing, the New Zealanders remained as they were, or worse still, show signs of regression?

It is certainly hard to remember when last an All Black team and coach arrived in South Africa under more pressure than Foster and company will later this week.

And the decision to make scapegoats of the two sacked assistant coaches, John Plumtree and Brad Mooar, has ratcheted up that pressure further.

It is unlikely the sackings would have been Foster’s choice. What is likely is that he was given what was tantamount to an ultimatum - along the lines of “Something has to give to appease the demanding and upset New Zealand rugby public, you cannot just continue as you were”. Call them sacrificial lambs if you like, for that is what Plumtree and Mooar are.

Sacking the head coach in mid-season was always going to be an unlikely move. South Africa have done that with Bok coaches, but the All Blacks just don’t do it. When there has been change, like when John Mitchell took over in mid-season back in 2000, it has been because the newcomer’s predecessor has resigned.

Sacking Foster now would be tantamount to the New Zealand rugby bosses saying they got it wrong when they appointed Foster as head coach, something that was never a universally popular decision among All Black supporters impressed with what Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson has done with the Crusaders.

It is far easier to sidestep the issue by making out it wasn’t the head coach at fault. Never mind that the coaching group was appointed as a package and Foster drove the appointments. Which is why we can assume that Foster probably wasn’t overjoyed at having to terminate their employment, and neither was he being duplicitous when he said he feels deeply for both men.

Maybe the cards were just more stacked against him, or he never had the backbone that former Bok coach Peter de Villiers had when he was given a similar ultimatum by the then South African Rugby Union president Oregan Hoskins in 2010.

As he wrote in his book, Politically Incorrect, De Villiers just didn’t feel he could drop two men in Gary Gold and Dick Muir who had been so loyal to him. He called the bluff of those above him and stared them down rather than give in. He got away with it.

But back to that question: What happens if Jason Ryan doesn’t prove an immediate fix to an All Black forward crisis that many people think might be systemic rather than down to team coaching anyway? By systemic we are referring to the New Zealand decision two years ago to rid Super Rugby of the one nation that could keep them on their toes and current when it came to forward play.

Let’s imagine a scenario where early in the game in Nelspruit on 6 August the Boks set up an attacking lineout and, like Ireland did, put into effect one of those rolling mauls they are renowned for and end up driving over the line for a try. What is that going to do to the confidence of a rugby public back home that might have brought into the “none of Ryan’s teams have conceded a driving maul try in five years” line that has accompanied his appointment?

Experienced and astute rugby people who have been around a bit know there is no such thing as an overnight fix. But when you make the change the All Black bosses have just made in mid-season it sends out the message that you expect a quick fix and an easy salve to the wounds opened by the All Blacks’ series defeat to Ireland.

Not just Foster, but also those who coerced him into making the change of assistants so he could save his own job, are under even more pressure now than they were in the week after the defeat in the deciding test of the Irish series.

If the All Blacks win Foster will survive to fight another day, or year, in the same way that Laurie Mains did when his team beat the Boks in the 1994 series straight after a shattering home series loss to France.

But if the Boks win it may well be that the long trend of New Zealand being the graveyard for Bok coaches, as it was for Ian McIntosh in that 1994 series, will finally have reverse itself.

For it is hard to see where the Kiwi rugby bosses can go from here other than finally concede they got it wrong initially. The only way out for them, this close to the next World Cup, would be a Kitch Christie style ambulance job. With Razor joining his mate Jason in the dugout on the end of year tour.

The figurative noose around Foster’s neck hasn’t been loosened, it is as tight as it ever was, maybe even tighter. It’s just that no-one has pushed away the chair. The Boks will play that role if they win both games…