Boks poised to make a telling statement

When you apply your mind to Saturday’s Castle Lager Rugby Championship face off between New Zealand and South Africa it is hard to avoid the exclamation mark. As in “Wow, this is going to be interesting!”

It is interesting on so many levels, not the least because of the way rugby continuously evolves, and how the two protagonists have evolved since they last met in Johannesburg on 13 August 2022, meaning one day more than 11 months ago.

Back then the All Blacks were just starting out on their own correction. They made some key changes at forward from the side that started when they were thumped by the Springboks in Nelspruit the previous week. With prop Ethan de Groot proving a tough and combative presence in starting out on his international journey and lock Scott Barrett revelling in a more direct forward orientated approach, the first brick for a turnaround was laid with an unexpected bounce back victory.

With Jason Ryan, formerly of Crusaders, as the forwards coach, the Kiwis went on to lose unexpectedly at home to Argentina after that, but otherwise it was the start of an upward trajectory on their performance graph that was rounded off by an under the radar yet successful end of year tour. Plus they managed to clinch the Rugby Championship title for the umpteenth time.

BOKS HAVE CHANGED SINCE THEN

The Boks in turn have changed a lot since then. It may be overstating it to suggest they were one trick ponies, for that would be unfair, but they are much less one trick ponies now than they were last August and had been prior to that. When they started running back kick receipt in Europe in November a switch was flicked that has transformed them into a different animal to what they were before.

A much more dangerous animal at that, with what so many international coaches have always feared finally happening - namely the Boks realising that there are more ways to win than the traditional grind of the forwards and the effectiveness of their contestable kicking and physical defensive blanket.

You just have to look at the identity of the two flyhalves doing duty for the Boks at Mount Smart Stadium on Saturday to know that the All Blacks are set to encounter something different from what they have from the South Africans before. Neither Damian Willemse or Manie Libbok are players that you’d imagine listing their biggest strengths as the tactical kicking game.

There was a heady mix and variety to the Bok game last week, one that appeared to surprise Australia. Instead of the Wallabies making the statement they had stated as their intention as they looked to end a 60 year drought in Pretoria, it was the Boks who made the big statement.

FACING A VERY DIFFERENT ANIMAL

But without wanting to undermine the excellence of that performance, one that could quite easily have ended in a 60 point winning margin had more visits to the red zone been converted into points, comparing a game against Australia in Pretoria to one against the All Blacks in Auckland - okay, not Eden Park, but still Auckland - is like comparing a mountain stream to the Victoria Falls.

As everyone seemed to write in the buildup to last week’s game, the Aussies have a phobia about the highveld and have tended to conspire against themselves to lose games there even when the Boks are in crisis or don’t play well. The Vodacom Bulls players are renowned for having a strut to their walk at Loftus that they don’t have anywhere else, and it is the same with the Boks.

In my view the All Blacks weren’t nearly as emphatic and dominant in their performance against the Pumas last week as the Boks were in Pretoria. There were serious problems with the Argentina defensive game and frankly the hosts looked a little undercooked. But the game was being played in Mendoza, not on the Kiwi home patch like the South African mauling of the Wallabies.

That New Zealand will be a different animal goes without saying, and it will require a very good performance for the Boks to win. And yet that is an outcome that looks more likely to happen than most times the South Africans have headed to New Zealand soil in the post-isolation era. There is a huge opportunity for the Boks to make a massive statement that will send the confidence levels through the roof and build serious momentum ahead of the World Cup.

ENVIABLE STRENGTH IN DEPTH

What last week proved was the strength of the back-up, and it is reflected on the bench - what team would not want RG Snyman, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Duane Vermeulen coming on later in the game? And we haven’t mentioned Malcolm Marx. Or Thomas du Toit, who was impressive when he came on at Loftus.

The starting players in this game will also have had a fire cracker placed beneath them by the performance of the fringe players - take a bow Andre Esterhuizen for one - in Pretoria, not that the Boks ever need any extra motivation when the All Blacks are the opposition.

Last year it was at forward that the All Blacks got mangled in Nelspruit and it did appear that they struggled more with the adjustment to the South African physicality, something they miss due to this country’s non participation in Super Rugby, than the Boks did with the pace and tempo of the All Black game. It’s why even though they are playing away, a Bok win would not be a surprise this time.

The caveat is that against the All Blacks they will need to kick their goals, so there is lot of pressure on the triumvirate of kickers - Willemse, Faf de Klerk and Cheslin Kolbe - who will be doing the duties this weekend. A successful first kick from whoever lines it up will settle a lot of South African nerves, both those in Auckland and those supporters back home watching the game over breakfast.

And if the kicking is on point, you can bet your hard earned cash on the Boks giving South Africans reason for a weekend of celebration.

Teams

New Zealand: Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Mark Telea, Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane (captain), Shannon Frizell, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Nepo Laulala, Tupou Vaa’i, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Braydon Ennor, Caleb Clarke.

South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Damian Willemse, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth (captain), Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Thomas du Toit, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok.

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)

Kick-off: 09.05

Prediction: Springboks to win by 7