DEEP DIVE: Bok stock-take confirms rude health of world champs

The Springboks are six games into the new international season and this World Cup cycle and already the expectation of the reigning global champions are starting to become a runaway train.

One of the headlines spotted in the online version of The Sunday Times (London version) on a rugby column penned by former British and Irish Lions and England flyhalf Stuart Barnes read “‘Genius’ Erasmus has Springboks soaring towards a third World Cup in a row”.

That would surely have caused some consternation among South African fans who seven days earlier had hesitated to make the Boks favourites even for the Castle Lager Rugby Championship on the basis of the pressure that comes with that kind of expectation.

A lot can happen in three years. The Springbok teams that effectively ruled the world in 1998 and 2009 by easily winning the Tri-Nations, embarking on long winning sequences and in the 2009 instance also a Lions series win did not follow up at World Cups held just a short while later.

But while World Cups are often decided by fine margins and you can end up losing out in a one-off playoff game no matter how well prepared you are, what you can do is try your best to control the controllables.

And that is what coach Rassie Erasmus is doing with a selection policy aimed at improving both the depth of his selection net and depth of experience as he tries to satisfy the twin needs to win now while also keeping an eye on the next World Cup in 2027.

The downside of winning two successive World Cups with squads that didn’t diverge that much is that you’d imagine it should mean that this four-year cycle should be one of rebuilding.

So many of the double World Cup winners will be 35 or older when Australia 2027 arrives.

Erasmus though is strong on succession planning, as he showed with the policy he employed when he was effectively the director of rugby at the Stormers/Western Province between the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2011.

Erasmus made it his task to ensure that he had two good players in each position, plus a promising under-21 player who was good enough to slot in sooner rather than later.

That was a long time ago of course, so Erasmus will have refined his thinking since then.

However, a stock take of what the South African team has available in each position, and who is coming through, shows not only that Erasmus is effectively reprising what he did in the Cape a decade and a half ago, the expectations are also justified - the Boks are in rude health at this point of their journey to 2027.

So let’s take a look at it position by position, and do a stock-take of what is available and what the outlook might be.

FULLBACK

Willie le Roux is a double World Cup winner and by our reckoning should be playing his landmark 100th game for the Boks around about the time Argentina arrive in Nelspruit for the last game of this Rugby Championship.

Although it is important to note that he has been contracted for three seasons to the Vodacom Bulls (he’s completed one), Le Roux turned 35 a few days ago.

The landmark might be his remaining international aim, not another World Cup, by which time he will be 38.

But while there will be aspects of his game that will be missed when he is gone, there is plenty of cover in his position going forward, with the currently injured Damian Willemse actually the incumbent first choice if you consider he wore the No 15 at the start of the World Cup final last October.

Aphelele Fassi has been given three opportunities this season (Wales, Portugal and Australia) and has done well with every one, and looks to be developing both at international level and franchise level into the world beater many have always expected him to become.

Both Fassi and Willemse are 26 so there is no question of them not being in the mix for 2027 if they are not injured.

Yet Fassi isn’t the only additional fullback to have been used by the Boks this year - Emirates Lions fullback Quan Horn, yet another product of the Paarl rugby gold mine, has now been capped and scored a try on his debut against Portugal, and is only 23.

Former Lions player Tyrone Green has shown good form in England too, while Warrick Gelant was part of the Bok group at the 2019 World Cup.

He is out of favour at international level but on his good days at the Stormers he is world class. He is just 29, so will be 32 in 2027.

Then let's not forget what could be offered by the utility value of the precociously talented Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.

Flyhalf is his preferred position and he has played most of his games for the Stormers at inside centre, but fullback is his other position.

On a day you are fielding Manie Libbok at 10 and need a more reliable goalkicker, Feinberg-Mngomezulu would make a good fullback option.

He’s already played 78 minutes there after replacing Le Roux early in the Durban test against Ireland. Feinberg-Mngomezulu is just 22.

WINGS


Edwill van der Merwe reminded us with his fine debut against Wales, where he was the official man of the match, that South Africa has quite a few wings with the X-factor of Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cheslin Kolbe.

The latter two are the incumbents, and should be expected to start next weekend against the All Blacks, but the return to fitness of Canan Moodie does give Erasmus an interesting extra option.

One that has size on his side as well as X-factor, something that is needed against the All Blacks (remember how Wille le Roux was bumped off when the All Blacks were en route to one of their tries against the Boks in Auckland last year).

The 2019 World Cup hero Makazole Mapimpi reminded us in Perth last week that he remains a class player and there are no signs yet of him losing his pace, but he is 34.

Fortunately Van der Merwe is only 28, Arendse is also 28, Moodie has yet to turn 22, and while Cheslin Kolbe will be turning 34 at around the time of the 2027 final (his birthday is 28 October, the same day as the last RWC decider), he gives the impression he is one of those players like Deon Fourie who can play forever.

OUTSIDE CENTRE

Talking of players who can play forever, that might be Jesse Kriel.

The Maritzburg College old boy is currently 30 but is in such great physical condition that it is hard to imagine him falling off the pace before 2027 and we maybe should believe him when he says he’s actually aiming to play in the World Cup after that.

This is a position where there are most definitely two world class players available, with Lukhanyo Am showing in recent appearances that he is regaining what made him special and a certain selection in the No 13 jersey for so long.

Am is 30 and will be 33 at the next World Cup so could realistically be in Australia in 2027, but an exciting alternative should that not be the case is Moodie.

Although discussed as a wing, which is where he has played most of his top rugby, there are those who think outside centre will become his position.

And he showed how good he can be there with a starring role in South Africa’s record 35-7 win over the All Blacks at Twickenham before last year’s World Cup.

There’s also another player who hasn’t featured as yet in the Bok camps or plans, but who is just 21 and John Dobson expects to become a world beater - Suleiman Hartzenberg.

Hartzenberg has featured mostly at wing for the Stormers recently but outside centre might well be his position and in three years he will be 24 and matured and heading to his peak.

The Sharks have an equally youthful though less experienced possible future star at No 13 in the form of Ethan Hooker, who impressed in his few appearances for the Sharks in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.

An old boy of Westville Boys High, Hooker is also just 21 and his development in the next few seasons will be watched with interest.

He’s already been part of Bok training camps. Henco van Wyk, out injured for most of the URC season, is a Lions centre that has a lot of class to him as well as youth.

INSIDE CENTRE

Damian de Allende is the incumbent and is possibly the best in his position in the world right now, while watchers of England club rugby always find it confounding that the equally influential Andre Esterhuizen hasn’t played more often for the Boks.

There are hopes that the arrival of Tony Brown as the Bok attack coach might lead to Esterhuizen showing off more of the attacking skills he’s shown at Harlequins, but unfortunately his opportunity against Portugal was denied him by his early red card.

The Sharks’ 20-year-old Jurenzo Julius, although he is raw and has yet to play URC, is the obvious young player coming through, and has been mentioned by Erasmus as a potential star by 2027, but there are utility options that increase the depth at No 12 - both Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse could easily make the grade as inside centres, and Handre Pollard was tried there last week.

A player who has never featured under Erasmus but we know has international pedigree is Montpeillier’s Jan Serfontein, who was the best Bok player in the Allister Coetzee era.

FLYHALVES


The smart money should be on Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu being the first choice flyhalf at the World Cup, it certainly appears that is Erasmus’s thinking.

However, Handre Pollard will probably be backed to start against the All Blacks next week, and he’s just 30, so he should be around in 2027 if he wants to be.

Manie Libbok is one of the most dangerous attacking flyhalves on the planet and should remain part of the mix too, so the Boks have plenty of depth in a position where they used to be quite thin.

Feinberg-Mngomezulu is just 22 but a young player adding to the depth in this position is Jordan Hendrikse.

He showed nerves when given the opportunity against Wales but Hendrikse, who will play for the Sharks next season, is just 23 and has plenty of time to develop as an action.

And let’s not forget the man he will battle it out with for the Sharks No 10 jersey in the coming season - Siya Masuku.

The Challenge Cup winner showed great temperament once picked for the Sharks and although he was selected into the national squad and not used, he does add to the options Erasmus has available to him.

His development in the coming season should be watched with interest.

SCRUMHALVES

That Sanele Nohamba couldn’t get into the Bok squad sums up the depth that is being developed at scrumhalf.

Jaden Hendrikse, just 24, is already an established Bok but hasn’t been used this year because of injury, but in the absence of him and the also injured Faf de Klerk, there have been three players used by Erasmus in Cobus Reinach, Grant Williams and Morne van den Bergh, and none of them have let the team down.

With the quicker game the Boks are playing, it does look like players like Reinach and Williams might be the style of scrumhalf that will be needed.

It is a pity we didn’t get to see Van den Bergh, who is 26, play in dry weather in Perth.

He is lethal for the Lions. And before we forget, the currently injured Stormers scrumhalf Herschel Jantjies has experienced World Cup success (2019), while Embrose Papier of the Bulls is maturing in his role.

NO8s

When you lose a player of the quality and standing of Duane Vermeulen, who is now retired, it will always leave a hole, but Erasmus was already busy with his succession planning before Vermeulen left - the only reason we haven’t seen Jasper Wiese off the back of the scrum for the Boks this season is because he’s been out due to suspension.

That the currently injured Evan Roos isn’t the recognised first choice in this position is a measure of the options that Erasmus has available to him.

Roos would walk into most other international teams and is highly regarded by the club coaches who bring their teams to play the Stormers.

Yet Elright Louw, was good in the two matches he played in Australia, while perhaps the best young one coming through is the Bulls’ No 8 Cameron Hanekom. Hanekom was injured when the Bok squad was announced in June.

Kwagga Smith is the alternative No 8 and was a key player in the last World Cup win as well as the series win over the Lions.

BLINDSIDE FLANK

Pieter-Steph du Toit may well be one of those ever-greens and still be at the top of his game in 2027, where he will turn 35 during the tournament.

But if he isn’t the Stormers’ Ben-Jason Dixon is quickly turning into a like for like replacement.

Lock Franco Mostert was used on the flank in the past when Du Toit was injured and could be again in the short term, and Lions flanker Ruan Venter was blooded in the test against Portugal.

But the player coming through apart from Dixon as a potential world beater in that position might well prove to be the younger of the two Tshituka brother, Emmanuel.

Both he and Vincent are now eligible for the Boks, but Emmanuel is arguably the one that has the all-round attributes the Boks might be looking for in the position.

If you are looking for a No 7 backup who fits the traditional mould for a South African blindside, however, the man called into the squad this week as a lock, Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg, also adds an extra option.

He played most of his rugby for Montpellier last season as a blindside flank and Erasmus might well have had that in the back of his mind when he called him up.

Elrigh Louw has played No 7 for the Bulls, Evan Roos has also done so for the Stormers, and Jasper Wiese’s brother, Cobus, has returned to South Africa to play for the Bulls and was often used very effectively on the flank during his time at the Stormers.

OPENSIDE FLANK

Siya Kolisi isn’t a fetching or jackling flank in the mould of many traditional overseas openside flankers so maybe we don’t need to be looking too hard for that kind of player, but if we are this is one area where there are no obvious standouts aside from the already established Marco van Staden and Kwagga Smith.

Paul de Villiers was last year’s Junior Bok captain and it will be interesting to see if he gets game time at the Stormers this year, while a player to watch if he gets an extended run by staying away from injury is a player who has left the Cape, Nama Xaba.

There aren’t too many players in Xaba’s league at the breakdowns - the problem is he does appear to be injury prone.

A player who like the aforementioned Jan Serfontein should probably have played many more test matches than he has is the Bulls veteran Marcell Coetzee, but there’s the operative word - veteran.

 In other words, that bus might have left the station now.

Evan Roos was used as a No 6 at the Stormers towards the end of the most recent season and he could be a dark horse for a more regular role as an opensider going forward, particularly if we get to a point where someone like Louw or Hanekom comes through as the alternative to Wiese at No 8.

One player who could be in line to do what Kwagga Smith did by transferring Sevens success to success in the traditional 15-man format is the Lions' pacy openside flank JC Pretorius, who is one of the central cogs in a rapidly improving team.

NO5 LOCKS

The injured Franco Mostert and Lood de Jager are both world class, and RG Snyman, who can flit between both lock positions, will probably prove himself world class in the position too if he gets an extend run there.

South Africa never has problems at lock, and as was shown in Brisbane recently, when there are injuries, Pieter-Steph du Toit is still one of the best No 5s around.

De Jager, who will be 34 at the next World Cup, is possibly the most influential lock when he plays, but he’s been out injured for a while and there must be some concern about whether he will get back to where he was when he played such a big role in the series win over the Lions.

Ruan Nortje played No 5 against Australia in Perth and looked the part and should develop further before 2027, but two potential outliers who could come into the mix now that they are returning from Japan and Ireland respectively are JD Schickerling (Stormers) and Jason Jenkins (Sharks).

Then of course there is the aforementioned Janse van Rensburg, who was called into the Bok squad this week, and the current Stormers No 5 lock Ruben van Heerden.

There really are no problems for the Boks at lock, either now or going forward.

NO4 LOCKS

Eben Etzebeth will be wanting to continue through to 2027 but if he doesn’t Salmaan Moerat, who might also be an alternative captain should Siya Kolisi not make it, is starting to accumulate test caps and experience.

RG Snyman can also play there, as can the injured Jean Kleyn, and Schickerling is equally at home at No 4 as he is at No 5.

Cobus Wiese has been mentioned as a blindside flank option, he could also play in the second row.

If you are looking for a young player who could be a potential surprise developer, the young Sharks player Corne Rahl has a lot of potential, and so does JF van Heerden at the Bulls.

The latter in particular might be a good bet for the World Cup.

TIGHTHEAD PROPS

The most valuable people to have in a professional rugby set-up and South Africa has an abundance of them.

How much would England give to have Wilco Louw packing down in their No 3 jersey?

Here he can’t even make the Bok squad, and Neethling Fouche, who gets the better of so many international opponents when playing for the Stormers, can make the squad but he can’t make the team.

Frans Malherbe, Wilco Louw, Thomas du Toit and Trevor Nyakane have won World Cups so there shouldn’t be any quibbling over the selections, but good players have been missing out due to the plethora of excellent players in one position.

Among the young players coming through in the position you can list the Sharks’ Hanro Jacobs and the SA under-20 captain Zachary Porthen, who is only 20 but has already been introduced to senior rugby through the WP Currie Cup team.

HOOKER

Overseas critics often ask the question - Malcolm Marx is the best hooker in the world, so how come he often doesn’t start for the Boks?

The answer is that it all depends what the coaches expect from a game against particular opponents and in different positions, and these days rugby matches are contested by squads of 23, not just teams of 15.

Plus if Marx is the best in the world in his position, the tough as teak Bongi Mbonambi isn’t far behind.

Johan Grobbelaar struggled with his lineout throwing, which could have come down to a tightening of the nerves mixed with the weather conditions in Perth.

The Bulls hooker is surely the next cab off the rank in this position, although Erasmus has opted for the versatility of his franchise teammate Jan-Hendrik Wessels, who played at loosehead prop against Australia, as the third hooker in the squad for the two games against the All Blacks.

Rassie obviously sees something in him, so who are we to argue, but another player in the position with massive promise is Andre-Hugo Venter.

This may be a position where there is a bit of a gap between the top two and the rest though, and that’s all the more reason why Grobbelaar, Venter and Wessels should be given maximum chance to develop through Erasmus’s innovative selection policy.

LOOSEHEAD PROP

Ox Nche effectively saved the Boks from elimination with his scrumming as a replacement in the World Cup quarterfinal against England and the starting prop, Steven Kitshoff, who boasts infinite experience, is back from injury for the All Blacks.

So Gerhard Steenekamp, the Bulls prop coming through, probably won’t get to face the Kiwis.

And Jan-Hendrik Wessels, who made his first start for the Boks in a position he is less used to, is performing the role of hooker back-up.

There is also the utility value of Trevor Nyakane and Thomas du Toit, both of whom can play both sides of the scrum, adding to the Bok depth in this position.

Again, it’s one where there should never be a shortfall of players.