Lions changes don’t alter narrative in series decider

The changes that were made to the British and Irish Lions team will ask a few different questions and send out a clear message of intent but the central narrative of the series against the Springboks remains the same for the decider as it has been for the whole tour.

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The Lions did win the first test by pretty much beating the Boks at their own game in the second half of that match and they tried to win with the same tactics last weekend. For this final match of the three that have made up a series that has been played in its entirety at Cape Town Stadium, the Lions have gone for broke by selecting a pacy and creative bench equipped to stretch the hosts after halftime.

THERE’VE ACTUALLY BEEN THREE GAMES

But let’s not forget that the Bok team that the Lions will face on Saturday is one that has actually played them three times on this tour already and won twice. The South Africa A side that beat the Lions in a midweek tour game 10 days before the series officially started was effectively the Boks in all but name, and in that match the narrative we’d long before that assumed would be the case on this tour was confirmed.

For the record, nine of the Bok team that will start on Saturday also started in that game, albeit that Franco Mostert has been forced to change position, while seven of the Lions who played and lost against SA A will be starting in the decider.

The Boks bossed the Lions with their physical game in the first half of the midweek clash and even though Lions coach Warren Gatland was right when he suggested the Boks, or SA A, didn’t get their expected ascendancy in the scrums, that Bok scrumming unit had different personnel to the one that will play on Saturday and was also underdone because of Covid.

KNOWING HOW IS EASIER THAN DOING

Gatland probably knew then as well as his Bok counterpart Jacques Nienaber that the dye had been cast. In some ways he even gave away his concerns in the pre-match buildup before the first test when he suggested that if the Boks were hurt in the areas that they considered their strengths, then half the battle was won.

It was a similar hope clung to by many of the coaches who prepared provincial or franchise teams to play the Bulls when Heyneke Meyer was coaching them 15 years ago. And it really was that simple. The Bulls evolved later but there was a time when the Bulls were up the proverbial creek without a paddle when they didn’t get physical ascendancy and set phase dominance.

But the basics of stopping a run-away lorry are also quite simple. You just make sure you get something in its way that will arrest its momentum. It is though much easier said than done, and so it was with the Bulls and so it is with the current Bok team.

While the Lions did beat the Boks with their kicking game in the second half of the first test when their long period of inactivity plus the impacts of the Covid disruptions caught up with the hosts, for the most part when the Boks have been up for it physically they’ve bossed their opponents.

CENTRAL QUESTION REMAINS THE SAME FOR LIONS

Make no mistake, the Lions have a dangerous and potent mix to their selection this week that could hurt the Boks. If the South Africans do start flagging again after halftime, the pace of Exeter Chiefs loose-forward Sam Simmonds, the creative attacking abilities of Finn Russell and the flair of Eliot Daly, who retains his place on the bench, could be troublesome and threaten the home quest for a series win.

But there is less likelihood of that happening if the Boks start with the set-phase platform and physical superiority that annihilated the Lions in the second half last week. So the central question for the Lions is still there: Can they deal with the Bok physicality and forward strength? The answer to that question is that they are going to have to have made a significant and almost miraculous improvement on how they ended last week’s game.

If they don’t, they will be shut out. If you want simplistic, that’s it. The Lions have to front, or they will be shut out. There’s no amount of wizardry from either the reserves or the starting players, and the Lions should be better at the back with Bundee Aki at centre, that can win a game when you don’t have the ball and the opposition defence is all over you.

And while we are on the subject of the Bok defence let’s not ignore another fact that lengthens the odds against the Lions: For all the talk of the Boks being boring, it is the home team that has scored the tries that have beens scored in this series. At the moment the tally stands at three against one, with the Bok scores coming from backs and the Lions’ one score ironically coming from a driving maul.

Let’s extend it further and pretend that the ‘unofficial’ fourth test was actually really a test. In the SA A game the hosts scored two tries, both from the backs, while the visitors scored just one. The try scored by the Lions, dotted down by Wyn Jones, was also a forward try.

240 MINUTES WITH JUST TWO FORWARD TRIES TO SHOW

So the Boks and Lions have played each other three times, and in those three games the Lions have scored just two tries, both of them mauling tries, while the Boks have scored five. Not that the number of tries the Boks have scored is really the point, the main point is that the Lions have played 240 minutes of rugby against the Bok defence and have yet to score a backline try!

It’s also not as if they have always been denied possession either. In the SA A game they dominated possession despite being bashed physically earlier in the clash and still couldn’t make an impression.

Oh, and by the way, seeing we’ve made a bit of a fuss in this preview of the Lions’ reserves, let it be mentioned that Luke Cowan-Dickie, Mako Vunipola, Adam Beard, Simmonds and Daly, in other words five of the eight who will be on duty on Saturday, were all on the bench that night too. They came back, they sure did, in that match, with SA A having to make several changes because of the fitness concerns, but even though they dominated the second half they only crossed the Bok line once - and didn’t win.

NO REASON BOK DEFENCE SHOULD BREAK NOW

Of course there are some question marks over the Boks without Pieter-Steph du Toit and Faf de Klerk, and they will be missed, but Mostert was good on the flank in the second half last week and has a big engine, while the selection of Cobus Reinach to wear the No 9 was a good call.

The Lions will hope to make this a fast paced test, particularly after halftime, but the stats from the three games played between the teams so far suggest the Boks are right to back what they have been doing. The Lions have had to toil hard to break down the opposing defence and it is hard to see why that should change now.

TEAMS

South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi; Handre Pollard, Cobus Reinach; Jasper Wiese, Franco Mostert, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Trevor Nyakane, Vincent Koch, Marco van Staden, Kwagga Smith, Herschel Jantjies, Morne Steyn, Damian Willemse.

British and Irish Lions: Liam Williams; Josh Adams, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Duhan van der Merwe, Dan Biggar, Ali Price, Jack Conan, Tom Curry, Courtney Lawes, Alun Wyn Jones (captain), Maro Itoje, Tadhg Furlong, Ken Owens, Wyn Jones. Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Mako Vunipola, Kyle Sinckler, Adam Beard, Sam Simmonds, Conor Murray, Finn Russell, Elliot Daly.

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)

Kick-off: 18.00

Prediction: Springboks to win 20-12