There shouldn’t be too much deviation from the team that played the last Castle Lager Rugby Championship test against Argentina when Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber announces his first starting combination for the November tour on Tuesday afternoon.
With the Boks starting out against the world No 1 team, Ireland, in Dublin on Saturday, and then following up against the second ranked France in Marseille a week later, you’d think there isn’t too much room for experimentation. It is hard to remember the Boks embarking on a tougher end of year tour in the post-isolation era. There may have been longer tours, and even a similar sequence of games, but never have two of the northern teams been ranked first and second respectively.
However, South Africa’s national director of rugby said in a press conference before departure that ahead of the Rugby World Cup in France games against the top teams are in fact precisely the right time to experiment.
The exciting option that is being bandied around is playing Cheslin Kolbe, who is fit again and in excellent form for his French club, at fullback. That is the position where Kolbe started his career, and it was understood that was the position he was likely to play had his mooted return to the Stormers, now apparently abandoned, come off.
Erasmus gave a broad hint last week that such a move was possible, and after all, he does know what he has in Willie le Roux, while Damian Willemse, who played the early test matches this year in the No 15, is marked down as a flyhalf for this tour in the absence of Handre Pollard and Elton Jantjies.
“Cheslin at fullback, that’s an exciting option,” said Erasmus right at the end of the team announcement press conference last Friday.
“We are going to have to filter our squad down to 33 for the World Cup and you want players who are versatile. There will be some difficult calls. And right now we play the No 1 (Ireland) and No 2 (France) in the world and while I know you shouldn’t take chances in games like that, maybe you need to with a World Cup coming up. These are the actual games where you might try something like that.
“If a Kurt-Lee (Arendse) is fully on form and a Mapimpi is fully on form, and Damian is playing 10, then why not play Cheslin at 15? I’m not saying it is definitely going to happen — Kurt-Lee can also play at 15 for us, and there are a few guys in the SA ‘A’ pool but, yes, he is a realistic option to play 15.”
TWO SMALL PLAYERS AT THE BACK WOULD BE A GAMBLE
Why not play Arendse, Kolbe and Mapimpi as a combination? Well, the gut feel is that playing two smaller players in the same back three is a huge risk. One can be accommodated, as the Boks have quite successfully ever since Kolbe made an impact in the team back in 2018. But two players of more diminutive stature at the back might be stretching it.
It might have been more of an option to play Kolbe at fullback were Sbu Nkosi available to play, which he was at the time Erasmus was speaking. Mapimpi and his former Sharks teammate - Nkosi is now with the Bulls - would give the Boks the size on the wing that would make it easier to fit in Kolbe (or Arendse for that matter) at the back.
There again, Erasmus is renowned for his tendency to think outside of the box, so all bets are off when it comes to predicting what combinations he and Nienaber will come up with in Tuesday’s 2pm SA time team announcement.
It might be a smarter move though to select Kolbe on the wing, start with Le Roux at fullback, and have Arendse on the bench ready to try out the Kolbe, Arendse and Mapimpi back three configuration later in the game.
REST OF STARTING TEAM SELECTS ITSELF
The rest of the starting team should select itself, although of course in modern rugby there isn’t a strict demarcation between starting players and replacements when it comes to the importance of the roles they play. That means the front row combination punted to start could just as easily end up being the replacement combination, ready to bring impact and a possible change of momentum in the second half.
Malcolm Marx was a point of contention for many critics during the early part of the Rugby Championship season when he didn’t start, but that was when Bongi Mbonambi wasn’t available because of injury. Mbonambi is available now so there should be eyebrows raised if he starts at the Aviva Stadium. He was the starting hooker in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final in Yokohama.
There is an outside chance we could see Nienaber unleash a surprise on the bench, possibly give Manie Libbok a chance to show why he’s second flyhalf on this tour or give Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu a run just to make absolutely sure that Eddie Jones and England can never get their hands on him.
But the smart money should be on the Boks going for the six/two Bomb Squad split between forwards and backs that has served them so well and the selection of experienced players for a high-pressure game against the No 1 team in the world.
There is room for speculation within the forward mix on the bench: do the coaches go for two players who can play lock, meaning utility forward plus a specialist like Salmaan Moerat or Jason Jenkins, or do they go for one lock and two loose-forwards, meaning that Marco van Staden could join Kwagga Smith in the back row back-up.
The back-up tighthead is a toss-up between the raw scrumming power and versatility of Trevor Nyakane and the greater mobility of Vincent Koch. Against Ireland you probably go for the latter.
Possible Springbok team: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Damian Willemse, Jaden Hendrikse, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch, Salmaan Moerat, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Faf de Klerk, Kurt-Lee Arendse.