Critical phase for Boks but answers will only come in 2023

A glance at the current world rankings underlines the importance to the Springboks of the phase in the build-up to next year’s Rugby World Cup that begins with the two Castle Lager Rugby Championship matches against New Zealand.

Between next Saturday’s first game against the All Blacks in Nelspruit and the final match of 2023 against England at Twickenham in late November, the world champions and current third ranked team will play all five of the top six.

After the All Black games they fulfil their Championship commitments by playing sixth ranked Australia twice and Argentina twice. Argentina and Italy, who they face on their end of year tour, are the only sides they will face who are not in the top six. They start their end-of-year tour by playing the current No 1 nation, Ireland, in Dublin, before going to Marseille to play France.

WAKE UP CALL CAN HAPPEN FOR FRANCE

Former England and British and Irish Lions flyhalf Stuart Barnes is one of many leading critics who believe France would beat South Africa if the two teams met right now, but you can’t say that with any certainty. Although the French have been in imperious form, they haven’t played against the Bok physicality since 2018.

This time last year, the All Blacks thought they were flying because they were easily beating Australia. It was when they played the Boks that the wake-up call came. The same can happen in Marseille in November.

It will not just be because it will resolve the debate over the current world pecking order that the match against France and the one that precedes it against Ireland will be regarded as so important by the Bok management.

Ireland, France and New Zealand are also the three teams that pose the biggest threat to the Boks’ chances of being able to compete effectively for the title they won in Yokohama nearly three years ago. Ireland are direct Bok opponents in a pool that can be regarded as a group of death in the sense that it also features Scotland.

And if they get through that, the Boks will then face either New Zealand or France in their quarterfinal.

A MORE OBSTACLE-RIDDEN PATH TO RWC GLORY

It is certainly a more obstacle-ridden path to World Cup glory this time for the Boks than the one they faced in Japan. A lot was made of their opening game in the 2019 tournament against New Zealand, but ultimately it didn’t have much relevance other than that Siya Kolisi’s team ended up playing hosts Japan in their quarterfinal rather than Ireland.

You could say the same about the previous World Cup win under Jake White’s coaching and John Smit’s captaincy in 2007. The Boks beat Fiji and Argentina in their two playoff games before the Paris final. They beat England, who were poor that year, in a pool game and in the final, otherwise, they didn’t have to beat a nation that was in the top four going into the tournament. Others did that for them.

This time they are going to have to bump one of the pre-tournament favourites in the quarterfinal round. There is no avoiding it. And as games against both New Zealand and France can depend so much just on how the ball bounces on the day and how well you take your chances, there is a very real chance the Boks could be dethroned at the quarterfinal phase.

WHY EMPHASIS ON GLOBAL EVENT CAN BE OVERDONE

The point about how so much can just depend on what happens on the day when these teams meet is the very reason perhaps that too much World Cup emphasis shouldn’t be put on the games.

As it stands, the Bok and All Black games will be played over 14 months before they potentially square up in their quarterfinal on 14 October 2023, and the Ireland and France games will be played over 11 months out from their potential World Cup clashes.

Modern international rugby is dominated by the World Cup, but the focus on particular aspects of the challenge can end up appearing as such a waste of time once you get there. In 2011, everyone thought the Boks were going to play Ireland in the quarterfinal in New Zealand, but instead they ended up playing Australia and going out to a refereeing freak show.

In 2019, it was a similar story, and in 2015 the big England obstacle turned out to be no obstacle at all as they were knocked out in the group stage of their own World Cup. The Boks played Wales in their quarterfinal instead. And right up until the day the Kiwis got smashed by England in their semifinal, everyone was expecting an All Black/Bok return in the 2019 final.

In 2007, the psychological blows every South African felt had been recorded against the All Black chances when two local teams made the Super 14 final proved irrelevant once the Kiwis choked in the World Cup quarterfinal.

Also, can you really replicate the pressure of a clutch World Cup game in a one-off test match?

If the Boks lose in Marseille in November, it won’t mean they don’t have any chance of reversing that result should they meet in a high-pressure World Cup knock-out game. Likewise, two losses on South African soil won’t kill the New Zealand chances of reversing it on the Boks 14 months from now.

On the contrary, it might just hurry the change, and the subsequent correction, that many New Zealand rugby supporters still feel is necessary. There wasn’t a change of coach when the Boks whitewashed the All Blacks in the 2009 Tri-Nations, but it did drive the correction that led to the Kiwi triumph in the 2011 World Cup.

Perhaps the learnings the losers could take from the coming games might prove more relevant than any psychological blows landed by the winners. Who knows. Like so many things, we will only know once the World Cup arrives.