Northern hemisphere once again equals northern hubris

The definition of the word hubris - excessive pride or self-confidence. You should see then how it fits the overview of where Rugby World Cup 2023 is with a fortnight to go. The teams that so much was being made of in the buildup are out of the competition.

For the past year or more we’ve been hearing and reading how the northern hemisphere have become the dominant force in rugby, how this was going to be the year the southern stranglehold would be ended.

To be fair, some of us bought into it, and I for one had a northern blockout as a realistic proposition if you look at my quarterfinal predictions.

The England game, which provided the only northern hemisphere semifinalists, was the only prediction that was right.

Even then it was close, and you could argue that we were six points away from seeing an all-southern hemisphere semifinal round.

Four semi-finalists, four continents represented 🌍#RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/inKsJiUThb
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 15, 2023

Which is what we had when the RWC was last played in Europe when England hosted it in 2015.

Back then we heard a lot about how the balance of power had changed, how the northern teams would challenge.

But it was the four Rugby Championship teams that played on the semifinal weekend, and hosts England never even got out of their Pool.

PLEASURE TO SEE SOME MUCH-NEEDED JEOPARDY

Again, to be fair, all four of the matches played in the 2023 edition of the quarterfinal stage were mightily close, and what a joy it was to see the first playoff round bring the kind of jeopardy that was mostly missing from what many might have seen as an underwhelming Pool phase of this World Cup.

Just as so many predictions were wrong this past weekend, so they were almost always spot on in the first five weeks.

There was too much predictability, there were too many games that had to be built up with false hype to attract interest.

World Rugby apparently wants to expand the number of teams to 24 from the current 20 in 2027. It’s the opposite of what they should be doing.

They should be going for a 12/12 split between an upper and bottom tier, with the secondary competition being played in mid-week and the winner earning financial riches from World Rugby to help them prepare for their promotion to tier one at the next World Cup.

More of the strength versus strength matchups we saw this past weekend are surely what the competition needs.

The two games involving teams outside of the top four in the World Rugby rankings were a bit behind, a long way behind, the two featuring the real contenders for the Webb Ellis trophy in quality and tempo.

England, who play the Boks in a rematch of the 2019 final in Saturday’s semifinal, are crowing about how they proved their critics wrong, but have they played anyone of note?

Argentina, who got the southern hemisphere statement going with their excellent win over Wales at the start of the round, were England’s only notable victims - and the Pumas had a horrible off night on 9 September, producing one of their worst performances ever.

EVENNESS MADE FOR COMPELLING VIEWING

But while the other two semis lagged in quality, the evenness of the competition between the teams made for compelling viewing.

Both games ended with exciting conclusions, as did the two epic encounters featuring the All Blacks and Ireland and the Springboks and France.

From a South African viewpoint, you get the feeling it was a perfect weekend. Perhaps because so many Irish supporters and media appeared to struggle with their new status of having a No 1 team to write about and support and seemed so arrogant and cock-sure about this being their year, it felt like there was a lot of quite passionate support in South Africa for New Zealand.

That will change of course if the two teams get to meet in the final, although I am not sure I am wrong in suggesting that South Africans do feel happier to accept defeat against the All Blacks than they do against teams like Ireland or England.

There appears to be a mutual respect between the two great rugby nations borne out of so many titanic and furious battles.

LOSERS WERE STILL WORLD CLASS

But let’s not hammer Ireland, for they, like France, played their part in an unforgettable weekend, and both produced world-class performances that only just came up short.

Sport. #RWC2023 | #FRAvRSA pic.twitter.com/YjGzZ0JfRd
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 15, 2023

France could easily have put the Boks away, while Ireland will lament their slow start that saw them having to make up 13 points on an All Black team that is hard to chase once it gets ahead on the scoreboard.

Nay, there isn’t much wrong with either Ireland or France, and it is easy to feel sorry for both after a weekend of such fine margins.

What was wrong though was the way the expectation of success negated the challenges of the Boks and All Blacks.

Sorry, but you never write either of those teams off, and there’s a reason they are the two teams at the top of the list of World Cup winners with three triumphs apiece. And the Boks could so easily have beaten Ireland in their pulsating group phase match-up.

The big thing for both two southern hemisphere powerhouses - yes, we can refer to them as that again - is to ensure that the quarterfinal efforts weren’t their final.

They both had to dig deep, and there might be a hangover this week as they build up to semifinals they should expect to win. Both games in Paris were worthy of being a final.

IDENTITY OF OPPOSITION SHOULD NEGATE COMPLACENCY

Fortunately for both teams the identity of the opposition should guard against any complacency - in New Zealand’s case they know they are up against a Pumas team that beat them twice in this last four-year World Cup cycle, and the Boks never really need any extra motivation when they line up against England.

Four years in the making... #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/UA4WWX7M7J
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 15, 2023

If the semifinals though are anywhere near the standard of the two quarterfinals in Paris it would be a major surprise, and the draw is to blame for any sense of anti-climax that may descend on the World Cup now that the two most supported teams, France and Ireland, are out of it.

England will get voluble support against the Boks on Saturday but the intrigue around the northern quest for supremacy has largely been dissipated.

It is a pity that the Irish and French singing won’t be in evidence for at least one more week.

There is an argument that you have to beat the best at some point to be the best, so who cares if you go out in the quarters or in the semifinal, but it does actually matter that two top teams like Ireland and France are out with a fortnight to go.

And you have to feel particularly sorry for Ireland as there won’t be an asterisk next to this World Cup performance denoting that the game, they lost in the 2023 event was more than just another quarterfinal but could potentially have been a final.

In time to come, when memories have faded, this will be remembered as another year of Irish failure. Which essentially a quarterfinal exit is for a nation that has yet to get beyond this point in a World Cup.

They deserved to at least be in the top four for the first time.