World Cup round four wrap: Change required if big gaps are to close

Ireland might have felt they’d called wrong at the toss of a coin when they watched New Zealand annihilate Italy in a Rugby World Cup Pool A clash that underlined the huge chasm that exists between the top four and the rest of the competing nations.

The All Blacks were so good when they went on the rampage against the hapless Azzurri that it was impossible not to wonder if perhaps Ireland might wonder if they would be better off facing the hosts in the quarterfinal, something their win over the Boks the previous weekend sought to avoid.

But in reality, the thought that the All Blacks might lose to Italy was always the stuff of fantasy, as has been the hype around so many other games that, frankly, were always going to go the way they did. Japan’s achievement against the Boks in Brighton in 2015 was a rare event indeed when it comes to the smaller nations pulling off shocks at a World Cup. There’s not just a gap between the top four and the rest, there’s also one between those who play regular international rugby at a high level and those who don’t.

HISTORY REFLECTED TOUGHNESS OF ITALY’S TASK

The Kiwis have yet to lose to Italy in the history of battles between the two nations on the rugby field, and until this past Friday night’s game in Lyon, they hadn’t conceded a try to the Italians since 2016. So why would the balance of power suddenly shift so dramatically that Italy could knock the three time champions out of the competition?

The answer to why there were such thoughts probably lies in the need to drum up interest at a stage of the tournament where there are plenty of mismatches and where there are fewer box office games than there were on the opening weekend, when there were four big clashes that could conceivably have gone either way.

It happened at the last World Cup too. Was there ever any chance of Italy beating the Boks in Shizouka? Rassie Erasmus pretended there was because he wanted to give his players a dry run taste of the pressure they would face in the knockouts. Like New Zealand this past weekend, defeat would have spelt the end for the Boks, but in reality the South Africans were always going to be too strong.

And it was a similar story this past Friday night, with New Zealand rollicking to 49 points in a one-sided, landslide first half that, although it was between two of the established rugby nations who see regular top international competition, was redolent of what we’ve seen in games between the top teams and the minnows in this tournament.

It was the second game in a row that the All Blacks came within a few points of passing the century mark, but this time it wasn’t against Namibia, a vast country neighbouring South Africa but not numbering nearly as many rugby players with their population of just two and a half million, but against a fellow top tier team.

MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Why it wasn’t surprising though is because New Zealand have always made pretty light work of the Italians, as have the Boks outside of the one brain fart experience they had under Allister Coetzee’s coaching in Udine in 2016. The fuss made ahead of the most recent All Black/Italy game was always a case of much ado about nothing, and so it proved.

Mention of Coetzee though cues a point: There have been suggestions that World Rugby will stretch the number of competing nations at the global rugby event from 20 to 24 in 2027, but expansion or even retention of the status quo makes no sense if an effort is not made to get more games for the developing nations.

Coetzee made the point after his team’s disappointing 10 point defeat to Uruguay that brought down the final curtain for them at the World Cup that the seven games (three warmup and four competition games) they have played this year was as many as they played in the rest of the whole World Cup cycle.

That’s nothing compared to what the top nations play, and is a compelling argument against expansion or keeping the competition the same - Namibia are not going to do better against the top nations in four years time if they don’t get an opportunity to improve with more regular competition against the top sides.

And that’s not going to happen if the mooted world Test Championship, featuring the top 10 teams, gets going as planned between now and the next World Cup in Australia. The top sides will only be playing against each other in that period, meaning that there will be no opportunity in the next cycle for Georgia, for example, to repeat their giant killing act against Wales of a year or two ago.

FIJI BENEFITTING FROM BEING IN SUPER RUGBY

Georgia’s tight loss to Fiji challenged strongly for the game of the weekend and they were perhaps unlucky to lose to a team many consider the surprise package of the tournament but which has clearly benefitted from the growth opportunity presented to them by their participation in Super Rugby.

Where players from the different nations are playing their rugby is relevant when we look at why some teams are doing well and others aren’t. While Fiji are soaring, the nation excluded from Super Rugby four years ago, Japan, have arguably taken a step or two backwards, though their tournament does depend heavily on what happens in their final pool match against Argentina.

In their most recent fixture against Samoa, Japan did show that they may be part of a trend that further underlines the need for more games against top teams outside of the World Cup years if teams from developing rugby nations are to be part of the World Cup.

Tonga produced their best game of the World Cup against the Boks on Sunday night and their coaches admitted afterwards it was because the players are now finally gelling into a team. They didn’t have the benefit of the time together that the nations who play regular international rugby have, but now they and arguably Portugal too are starting to benefit from getting some proper game time together behind them. It’s all a bit late though and the playing field isn’t an even one.

Portugal pushed the Wallabies on Sunday before going down by 20 points and have been great to watch at this tournament but they have largely been the exception when it comes to the so-called smaller nations (in rugby terms). Stand by for the All Blacks to go a few better than they have in the last two lopsided games they have played by going past the century mark against Uruguay in their final group game.

NOT SURE ONE-SIDED GAMES HELP KIWIS PREPARE

Is that really a good buildup for them towards a World Cup quarterfinal against probably Ireland that will be a lot tighter than any game they have played since they opened with defeat against France on 8 September? Time will tell, but the sizzling manner in which they took Italy apart should be seen as a warning for Ireland, who might now be wondering if their narrow win over South Africa that pushed them into the path of the Kiwis was a case of them drawing the short straw.

What isn’t debatable is that the draw is horribly lopsided, and it is contributing to the impression that there just aren’t enough really competitive games of the kind that would tempt punters into planning their weekends around them. With so much on the line, that might change in the final weekend of the pool phase, with Japan against Argentina and Ireland against Scotland being the standouts.

Some might say France against Italy too but that’s being as fanciful as suggesting that Italy might beat the All Blacks…

WEEKEND RUGBY WORLD CUP RESULTS

Uruguay 36 Namibia 26

Japan 28 Samoa 22

New Zealand 96 Italy 17

Argentina 59 Chile 5

Fiji 17 Georgia 12

Scotland 84 Romania 0

Australia 34 Portugal 14

South Africa 49 Tonga 18