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Six Nations Preview: Northern giants chase post-RWC redemption

rugby02 February 2024 10:10| © SuperSport
By:Gavin Rich
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There’s one new coach and five new captains but for the teams playing in the 2024 Guinness Six Nations the focus will be less on the start of the rebuild to Australia 2027 and more for redemption after what eventually proved to be a disappointing World Cup for the northern nations.

Never has the hope burnt as bright for northern hopes as it did in France 2023, but when the global tournament concluded with the final in Paris just over three months ago, it was Siya Kolisi’s Springboks and Sam Kane’s All Blacks who squared up in a symbolism of continued southern domination.

But the playoff games were close, with a narrow margin separating the two favoured teams, France and Ireland, from success in the quarterfinal phase, while England were denied by just one solitary point and Ox Nche’s destructive scrumming coupled with Handre Pollard’s calm place kicking in the semifinal.

That England turned out to be the northern team that went the furthest in the tournament would be a surprise to anyone who ignored the role the lopsided draw played in their advance. In the previous two Six Nations campaigns they finished with just two wins and a low placed finish. Ireland and France have been the stellar performers, and they are likely to be again, with France probably the favourites this time mostly because they have home ground advantage for the tournament opener.

FRANCE AND IRELAND LOOK TO REBOUND FROM DISAPPOINTMENT

For both France and Ireland, there was bitter disappointment, with Ireland failing once again to cross the barrier too far that has been their lot at quarterfinal stage throughout the history of the Rugby World Cup, while France was hoping a second crack at being tournament hosts would help them break their duck when it comes to World Cup titles.

“Could have, should have, would have…” The emotion and frustration reflected in those words, or words like it, would have been reflected often in conversation between rugby supporters in both nations in the three months since the World Cup ended, and for them this Six Nations represents a chance to soothe that disappointment.

Certainly, it appears that winning in the here and now, meaning tasting Six Nations glory (it is the oldest international competition in rugby after all), is the imperative, with the newly appointed captains of Ireland (Peter O’Mahony 34) and England (Jamie George 33) not reflecting any kind of big focus on the next RWC in Australia in 2027.

You’d assume both nations might be looking for new captains at some point in the next four years, but maybe not so Wales, who have 21-year-old Dafydd Jenkins leading them. Veteran Wales coach Warren Gatland clearly has big plans for Jenkins, who he compares in leadership potential to Alun Wynn Jones. High praise indeed considering how much Gatland rated the long serving Wales and British and Irish Lions leader and lock.

France’s change of captaincy was necessitated through Antoine Dupont’s decision to focus on winning a gold medal for France in Sevens rugby at the Paris Olympics, and both he and the new appointee, Gregory Alldritt, are young enough to be banked on to be at the helm in Australia.

France’s ability to do without Dupont will be one of the big questions in this Six Nations, and ditto Ireland starting life without Johnny Sexton, who played his last game of serious rugby at the age of 38 when New Zealand knocked Ireland out in France.

Ireland has two co-captains leading them in the form of Finn Russell and Rory Darge, with coach Gregor Townsend not happy with aspects of Jamie Ritchie’s leadership in the World Cup, while Italy have retained their captain Michele Lamaro, the only survivor as team leader from last year’s Six Nations, but they have a new coach in the form of Gonzalo Quesada.

Six weeks of fierce competition can be anticipated, with this year’s Six Nations ending on 16 March with a blockbusting showdown between France and England in Paris.

Let’s delve into the heart of what awaits with summaries of each team and their prospects:

England (World Rugby Ranking: 5th):

Under coach Steve Borthwick, England will continue the rebuild the former lock started when he replaced Eddie Jones ahead of last year’s Six Nations. Expect a continued focus on physicality, set-piece dominance, and a fighting spirit, but there’s also a lot of focus in England on a potential switch to a more embracing attacking game. Much will hinge in that regard on who starts at flyhalf in the big games. George Ford was the go-too man in the first game against Italy and that was seen as a conservative selection, with Fin Smith challenging strongly in the absence of the injured other Smith, Marcus. Young talents like Ben Earl and Ollie Chessum can add spark, but can England build on their World Cup experience to challenge the giants? It’s unlikely they will touch France and Ireland, but what they do have is a good draw (not new for them if you think of last year’s RWC) with the games getting progressively tougher before the clashes with the big two arrive.

France (World Rugby Ranking: 4th)

Last year’s runners up, France will be favoured despite missing key players like Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack. Veteran leaders Uini Atonio and Romain Taofifenua return, while exciting youngsters like Matthieu Jalibert and Melvyn Jaminet look to fill the void. Their opening clash against Ireland could decide their title fate.

Ireland (World Rugby Ranking: 2nd)

Defending champions Ireland face a major challenge replacing legendary flyhalf Johnny Sexton. However, they possess a strong core led by Peter O'Mahony and stars like Tadhg Beirne, Caelan Doris, and Tadhg Furlong. Consistency and finding an effective replacement at fly-half will be crucial. Can they defend their title without Sexton? One thing they do have in their favour is that they’ve had practice at that playing as Leinster in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.

Italy (World Rugby Ranking: 11th)

Under new coach Gonzalo Quesada, Italy aims to build on the momentum of improved recent performances in the Six Nations (but a disappointing World Cup). They will focus on strengthening their defence and set piece, featuring exciting young backs like Ange Capuozzo and Paolo Garbisi. Home fixtures against England and Scotland present opportunities to climb the ladder.

Scotland (World Rugby Ranking: 6th)

Inconsistent but capable of upsets, Scotland seeks to build on recent wins against England. Duhan van der Merwe remains a key threat, while Finn Russell spearheads their attacking potential. Injuries to key players like Chris Harris pose a challenge. They will need to overcome their tendency to be inconsistent if they want to challenge for top honours.

Wales (Rank 8th)

Warren Gatland is in charge of a young, rebuilding Welsh team with an exciting new prospect as a long-term captain in Dafydd Jenkins, the Exeter Chiefs lock. Experienced players like Josh Adams and Gareth Davies are still there, but the pacy Louis Rees-Zammit shocked Gatland on the day he was due to announce his Wales Six Nations squad by making it known he was leaving rugby union to pursue a possible career in the NFL (American grid-iron). Exciting prospects like Alex Mann and Cam Winnett bring fresh energy, but replacing veteran flyhalf Dan Biggar and other recently retired stalwarts such as Leigh Halfpenny and Alun Wynn Jones remains an ongoing task. The big Welsh win over Australia in the World Cup was an indicator of Wales potential but it will require some of the old Gatland magic for them to challenge.

Predictions:

It will likely go down to one of France and Ireland, with the opening game of the tournament proving very decisive in that regard. Games that stand out as potential obstacles to that theory are Ireland’s visit to Twickenham later in the competition and France’s visit to Edinburgh next weekend. At Murrayfield, Scotland are always good for an upset. The Scots are unlikely to win the big ones away, while England will be underdogs both at home to Ireland and away to France.

Guinness Six Nations fixtures

Catch all the games live on SuperSport.

First weekend

France v Ireland (Paris, Friday 22.00)

Italy v England (Rome, Saturday 16.15)

Wales v Scotland (Cardiff, Saturday 18.45)

Week 2 of 5

Scotland v France (Saturday 10 February, 16.15)

England v Wales (Saturday 10 February, 18.45)

Ireland v Italy (Sunday 11 February, 17.00)

Week 3 of 5

Ireland v Wales (Saturday 24 February, 16.15)

Scotland v England (Saturday 24 February, 18.45)

France v Italy (Sunday 25 February, 17.00)

Week 4 of 5

Italy v Scotland (Saturday 9 March, 16.15)

England v Ireland (Saturday 9 March, 18.45)

Wales v France (Sunday, 10 March 17.00)

Week 5 of 5

Wales v Italy (Saturday 16 March, 16.15)

Ireland v Scotland (Saturday 16 March, 18.45)

France v England (Saturday 16 March, 22.00)

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