Changed landscape makes for intriguing third round

A dramatic change in the Vodacom Super Rugby landscape between the first and second rounds has added to the intrigue and ushered in just the right level of unpredictability as the competition heads into round three.

The local action this weekend will take the form of an appetising double header featuring two massive derbies on Saturday afternoon, played one after the other. The Cell C Sharks are the only unbeaten South African team after two rounds and a week ago everyone was writing off their Jonnson King’s Park opponents, the DHL Stormers. But the outlook changed in those dramatic last minutes of last week’s Newlands game and now the question that should be asked is: What effect might their late comeback win over the Emirates Lions have had on the Stormers’ confidence?

They were horrible against the Bulls and looked like a team short of confidence, and perhaps impacted by the off-field shenanigans in their region, for much of their clash with the Lions. But Stormers assistant coach John Dobson is right - there was plenty to enthuse about in their second half performance, particularly those last minutes. Knowing how the Stormers/WP have tended to confound the expectations when they visit Durban, and vice-versa for that matter, it might not be wise to fork out too much of your hard earned cash if you want to bet against them.

My money says the Lions will beat the Vodacom Bulls at Emirates Airlines Park. The venue is the key here. First the Sharks last June and now the Stormers have broken the Lions’ dominance against fellow South African teams, but both those games were played away from Johannesburg. The Lions have often been in a league of their own in derby matches played on their home field, and that is particularly so against their near neighbours.

Yet there is a question that should bug Lions supporters: How will their team fare without Warren Whiteley’s leadership? The No 8 was missing for much of the early part of last season and it didn’t go as well for them as they’d have liked. Remember the loss at home to the Blues? Admittedly when it really went south for the Lions in 2017 was in the period when Malcolm Marx was also absent. The big hooker is still there. He should have saved the Lions from defeat at Newlands last week with what looked like a legitimate breakdown intervention, he was just unlucky that the referee saw it differently.

Unlucky or not, last week’s defeat does stand, and it is reasonable to argue that the Stormers were unlucky with refereeing calls (more to the point, it was TMO intervention) earlier in the game. They could have made enough of a difference to make the Marx decision less relevant. It is a swings and roundabouts thing, though those who are calling for the refereeing and TMO officiating to be jacked up do have a point. In a professional sport wrong decisions can cost people their jobs. There are too many howlers in Super Rugby. Actually, remembering Twickenham and Owen Farrell last November for one, there are too many howlers in modern rugby full stop.

At the same time though the intervention of the TMO and refereeing assistants, and the constant referral to technology, does have the effect of slowing the game down. With the scrums - and this is last year’s gripe as this season is still an embryo - also holding up play because of the constant re-sets, it turns many games into stop start affairs that just aren’t appealing. Fans don’t want to have to take a book with them to rugby so they can entertain themselves during the endless stoppages. So it is a delicate issue.

Adding intrigue to the South African conference this year is the knowledge that the Jaguares have to be watched. They are bound to be contenders for conference honours after their strong 2017 challenge. In the second round they bounced back well from their opening defeat to the Lions, where the impression was created that they were short of a gallop and rusty. We will know more about them after they host the Blues in their third match.

It is when you look away from the South African conference, and focus on the other games to be played this weekend, that it becomes even more interesting. Australian rugby has shown signs of resurgence. The Brumbies in particular sent out a loud, clanging warning last week. But their chances of continued success against New Zealand opponents have surely been stymied by Hurricanes coach John Plumtree’s decision to return his big guns, and in particular Beauden Barrett (and Ardie Sarvea too), to the team for their match in Palmerston North. It should give the Hurricanes the edge. Surely?

The Rebels will test the Aussie resurgence theory too when they host the Highlanders, who remain one of three unbeaten teams after scraping to two close wins. Last week’s narrow squeak against the Reds was at home, but the opening weekend win over the Chiefs was away.

Talking of the Chiefs, they need to wake up quickly after the harrowing loss to the Brumbies. Fortunately for them they are hosting the Sunwolves, who are always less toothy away from Tokyo and Singapore.

The Crusaders go to the Reds as the form team in the competition. But the Reds travelled across the Tasman last week and were unlucky to lose to the Highlanders, and they are playing host in Brisbane.

It all sums up to something that should please Australian rugby chief executive Raelene Castle. Last year Castle lamented the Super Rugby trend that was developing, saying that the predictability of the result when Kiwi and Aussie teams clashed was taking away one of the key elements of the sport.

Well, in this early stage of the competition at least, it looks a lot less predictable now. It should make it more watchable and followable too.

Weekend fixtures and predictions

South African Conference

Emirates Lions v Vodacom Bulls (Johannesburg, Saturday 15:05)

If it hadn’t been for the loss to the Bulls for this game of Lood de Jager, you might just fancy the Bulls’ chances of pulling off an upset as the Lions looked disrupted without the leadership of Warren Whiteley at Newlands. But De Jager is probably as important to the Bulls as Whiteley is to the Lions, and the Bulls have struggled for a long time in their ventures to the wrong side of the Jukskei River. The Bulls have also just travelled back from Argentina. The Lions hinted that the travel, and disrupted week, influenced their performance against the Stormers. So it should have an impact on the Bulls too. It all points then to a Lions win.

Prediction: Emirates Lions by 10

Cell C Sharks v DHL Stormers (Durban, Saturday 17:15)

Recent clashes at Super Rugby level - but not Currie Cup - have tended to go the way of the home team, and you fancy that might be the case in this coastal derby too. The Sharks are playing with great confidence and will be eager to show that they don’t still suffer from the inconsistency malady that has blighted them in recent seasons. The caveat though is that they are playing against a Stormers team that shapes as an unknown quantity after last week - they were awful early on, but confidence, which they would have gained in the final minutes against the Lions, can transform a team. They are travelling to Durban under a lot less pressure than was the case before the Newlands game. They may enjoy starting as underdogs. They probably also know they have, on paper at least, the best pack the Sharks have faced so far.

Prediction: Sharks to scrape it.

Jaguares v Chiefs (Buenos Aires, Saturday 11:40)

The Blues will be desperate after losing two in a row. They can’t afford to make it three in a row or the positivity that was evidenced in Auckland when they lost narrowly at home to the Crusaders in their first game will be forgotten. The Jaguares don’t boast a great record against New Zealand sides, even on their home patch, but they started turning that around last year.

Prediction: Jaguares by 7

Australasian Conference

Hurricanes v Brumbies (Palmerston North, Friday 08.35)

Prediction: Hurricanes by 10

Rebels v Highlanders (Melbourne, Friday 10.45)

Prediction: Rebels by less than 7.

Chiefs v Sunwolves (Hamilton, Saturday 08.35)

Prediction: Chiefs by 20

Reds v Crusaders (Brisbane, Saturday 10.45)

Prediction: Crusaders by 8