The problem for the Boks is Jake is right

The smart money will be on South Africa edging Wales on Sunday to set up a repeat of the 1995 Rugby World Cup final, but there is something that should nag at all Springbok supporters - has the team been properly tested yet?

Jake White, the coach of the 2007 World Cup winning team doesn’t think so, and much though some people might not like to hear it, he does have a point.

Speaking to the Rugby World Cup website, White said he knew the Boks would feel they hadn’t been properly tested subsequent to their tournament opener in September and it would be a concern for them.

"South Africa have had it easy so far. They will know that. They were always going to come second in their pool and then they got Japan," said White.

White believes South Africa's preferred quarterfinal opponents would have been France, who lost 20-19 in their encounter with Wales.

"I know in 1995 with (the Nelson Mandela influence) we went up four or five notches as the home nation and it would have been the same for Japan. But if you'd told South Africa before the tournament that you'll get Japan in the quarterfinals of a World Cup, they'd have taken it.

"The only time they have been tested, they lost against New Zealand in the pool game so it's difficult to say what they have been like. They have been good enough to win the other games but the real test comes now."

COMFORTABLE WINS AND NOT PROPERLY TESTED

The Yokohama game against the All Blacks was at the beginning of the tournament. In other words, five weeks ago.

Since then they have enjoyed comfortable wins over Namibia, Italy, Canada and Japan. The last-mentioned rose above themselves in this tournament and are now pretty close to grabbing themselves tier-one status, at least from a playing and results viewpoint. But like in all the previous games, where the Boks set it up was through a magnificent, brutal forward effort.

And maybe that’s what White is referring to. No-one would argue that Japan didn’t test the Boks, particularly in that first half, when the Boks led just 5-3 at halftime. Maybe you had to be there to appreciate just what a massive test of nerve it was for the Boks playing in front of that crowd and knowing the whole world was supporting Japan and wishing for an upset victory.

But though they were tested in that game, it wasn’t really at forward that the Boks were tested. The South Africans had something that Japan didn’t - a proper, strong pack. That meant the Boks could bully their opponents into submission to an extent they possibly couldn’t some of the real top tier teams.

It also meant that even though the Boks were tested defensively in that game, it was always unlikely that Japan would sustain the pressure. You need a strong first phase platform to be able to keep the pressure on. Japan never had that. And of course, neither did the other teams the Boks have played since they played the All Blacks.

Even given their strong first-phase base in all the other games since then, the Boks have still been guilty of wasting opportunities in the way they did the last time they played at Yokohama’s International Stadium. They have improved, they have become more clinical, but they are still short of being as clinical as they would want or need to be.

WALES ARE A STEP UP AT FORWARD

The nagging question has always revolved around what will happen when they are properly fronted by a good forward pack? At the very least, what will happen on the day they come up against a pack that is at least able to compete and where chances that are created are fewer and more far between?

Well, we will know that answer on Sunday, because for all the talk about how poor Wales were against France in their quarterfinal, and make no mistake, they were poor despite what Bok assistant coach Matt Proudfoot told us during the week, the Six Nations champions do represent a significant step up from what the Boks have faced before.

CLOSE WINS BUILD BELIEF

And as White says, them coming through the pressure litmus test in Oita last week and still winning will give them the kind of momentum that such a win often does.

"I am sure 'Gats' will have been giving it to Wales this week, telling them they were close to going home and they had better get it right this weekend," said White.

"The fact they were so pushed to beat France means they will get a massive amount of confidence from that. Looking at Dan Biggar's body language when they won, the way he reacted and got the crowd going. That's why I think Wales can do it.

"They've had South Africa's number for a while. What I'd fear as a coach is that Wales weren't great last weekend but they got over the line. That means a lot when you are looking for momentum."

The Boks do fear that actually, and they haven’t been talking up Wales this week as part of a plan. They do genuinely respect Wales, as you should when your opponents have beaten you five of the last six times you have played them.

The Boks will also know that Wales have become a particularly difficult team to play against because they play much like they themselves play. They kick the ball to you and then rely on their defence to pin you in your own territory and feed off your mistakes.

Cast your mind back to the last Bok game against Wales, in Cardiff last November. The Boks looked as if they had enough of that game to win it, but once they were behind it just looked like such an uphill battle to break down the Welsh defence.

That’s what they can’t afford to do on Sunday - they can’t afford to let Wales get ahead. Their forwards have to repeat their efforts of recent weeks, and they do have the ability to dominate Wales. It just isn’t quite the given it is against other teams, but the Boks are strong enough upfront to dictate and that’s why they should win.

ALL BLACKS SHOWED BEING UNTESTED MAY BE IRRELEVANT

White will also know that the opposite could be true about a team that hasn’t been tested recently, for it certainly didn’t impact negatively on New Zealand in their quarterfinal. Or on England for that matter. White will also know that being untested doesn’t necessarily preclude you from winning a World Cup.

If you consider England were so horrible that year, that he beat Fiji on a neutral venue in the quarterfinal and Argentina in the semifinal, you could argue that his 2007 team won the trophy without being tested at all.

But the Boks will know they need to be a lot more clinical than they have been, the field kicking has to be more accurate, the chasing has to be on point, the aerial battle has to be won, the Welsh ball scavengers need to be dealt with, they need to be in sync this time with referee Jerome Garces and most importantly, the Boks need to take their chances when they come. Otherwise, they will be looking forward to the anti-climax of a third/fourth playoff match as their remaining role in this tournament.

Erasmus has been there before as a player in 1999 and won’t want to relive that experience. And you get the sense that he’s way too astute to let it happen. Which is why maybe most of the recent defeats to Wales don’t count for much. They didn’t happen full-strength under Erasmus’ watch.

Teams

South Africa: Willie le Roux, Sbu Nkosi, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Tendai Mtawarira. Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Franco Mostert, Francois Louw, Herschel Jantjies, Frans Steyn.

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams, Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies, Ross Moriarty, Justin Tipuric, Aaron Wainwright, Alun Wyn Jones (captain), Jake Ball, Tom Francis, Ken Owens, Wyn Jones. Replacements: Elliot Dee, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Adam Beard, Aaron Shingler, Tomos Williams, Rhys Patchell, Owen Watkin.

Referee: Jerome Garces (France).

Kick-off: 6pm Japan time/11am South African time

Prediction: Boks by 7 or 8