This URC weekend abounds with jeopardy

They say the best sports competitions are the ones where jeopardy is at a premium, and if you go to Google to find the definition of the word in this context, you will read that it is sport’s differentiator from other forms of content. Meaning genuine unpredictability of outcome, something you don’t always get from television, films and books.

We didn’t always get it in the latter parts of the first Vodacom United Rugby Championship season, when the South African teams were nearly always winners when playing at home against foreign teams, and we didn’t get it in the first three rounds of the current season.

But last weekend, in the fourth round, that all changed, and we are presented with a landscape in this round of matches where it is impossible to predict with much certainty which way it will go. There could conceivably be four South African wins in four games, particularly as Ulster and Glasgow Warriors, two of the form teams from last week, are having to travel. But it also isn’t completely beyond the realms of possibility that all four South African teams could lose, with the DHL Stormers’ clash with Ospreys in Swansea on Friday night far from the gimme some might think it should be.

The Ospreys were poor in their previous match but they did rest most of their international players, and they are back at home this weekend. They are always a lot more formidable in Swansea.

Munster are also a lot better at Thomond Park in Limerick than they are on the road, but the Vodacom Bulls will be a tough nut for them to crack as they try to turn around a season that currently has them on a 75 per cent failure rate (three losses in four game).

Of all the foreign teams playing against South African sides this weekend, you’d say that Ulster are the most likely to win, but they are playing the Lions at altitude. And Ulster, strong contenders though they always are in whatever competition they compete in, have yet to win on South African soil…

You’d expect the Cell C Sharks to deal with Glasgow Warriors, particularly as the game coincides with the first appearance of the season in Sharks colours of several top Springboks, but we also know what happened last time a Scottish team came to Durban. That was when Edinburgh visited Kings Park before Easter, when it wasn’t a pretty outcome for the hosts.

The plum fixture of those not featuring South African teams is probably Leinster’s visit to Galway to play a Connacht team that would have gained confidence with their victory over Munster.

COMING WEEKEND FIXTURES

OSPREYS v DHL STORMERS (Swansea, Friday 20.35)

Former Wales, British and Irish Lions and briefly Stormers centre Jamie Roberts told a URC media round table this week that this will be the game of the round, and it just might be. Both teams are desperate to win for different reasons - the Ospreys because they are at home and have dropped a few already, and the Stormers because a win could open space between them and the rest in the South African conference. And also just because when you have a winning record like theirs, currently at 14 consecutive victories, you just want to keep doing it. The Stormers have made seven changes, most of them strengthening the team, but the Ospreys have the internationals they rested last week back too. This could be a difficult one for the Stormers, who are struggling to put it together for the full 80 minutes.

Prediction: Stormers to scrape it.

CONNACHT v LEINSTER (Galway, Friday 20.35)

Connacht got their show on the road with a good home win against Munster last week, and they are renowned for how much more difficult they are to play against on their home ground of The Sportsground in Galway than they are when they are travelling. Leinster will know that and will tread warily. They are the form team in the competition at present and after soaking up initial pressure, they should win by more than a score.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 9

EMIRATES LIONS v ULSTER (Johannesburg, Saturday 14.00)

This might well be the game of the round given the impact altitude can have on the pace and aesthetic appeal of a game. The Lions have won three on the trot and should not be trifled with, but Ulster have massive pedigree and are well equipped to halt the Lions’ winning momentum. Certainly, if Ulster don’t win, it will say a lot about both teams - that the Lions are the real deal and should challenge at least for a playoff place this year, and that Ulster might still be short of where their arch-rivals and fellow Irish province Leinster are at present. The last time Ulster were in South Africa they were unlucky to lose a semifinal against the Stormers that they dominated for much of the way, and come to think of it, they were a bit unlucky in their league games against the Stormers and Bulls too. They are overdue for a win in South Africa and this is a great opportunity for them to do just that.

Prediction: Ulster by 7

CELL C SHARKS v GLASGOW WARRIORS (Durban, Saturday 16.05)

The Sharks team is expected to be named later on Friday but everyone seems to know what to expect - this will be Eben Etzebeth’s first game for the Durban franchise as he resumes his partnership at this level with former Stormers teammates Siya Kolisi and Bongi Mbonambi. Etzebeth’s appearance in the Sharks’ kit is timely as the Warriors did a good job of disrupting the Bulls in the lineouts and other aspects of forward play in Glasgow last weekend. If Etzebeth is at the top of his game, and ditto fellow Bok tight five forwards Ox Nche, Mbonambi and Thomas du Toit, that will go some way towards negating that threat. The Warriors are always considered a threat at home but not so much on the road, so the Sharks should be expected to win.

Prediction: Sharks by 12

CARDIFF v DRAGONS (Cardiff, Saturday 18.15)

These two Welsh teams are 10th and 13th respectively on the overall log, and their performances so far merit their low rankings. Both teams have Munster listed among their victims this season, but for both of them, that is starting to feel quite a long way in the past as they haven’t retained their winning touch. At home, you’d imagine Cardiff should be on the winning side in this one.

Prediction: Cardiff to win by 8

EDINBURGH v BENETTON (Edinburgh, Saturday 18.15)

Phew, Edinburgh surprised a few people by losing to the Lions on their return home from what many thought was a promising tour of South Africa. So, while they should start as favourites against a Benetton team that is good at home in Treviso but not so flush on the road, it’s far from a clear-cut call.

Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 8

SCARLETS v ZEBRE PARMA (Llanelli, Saturday 20.35)

Zebre have been competitive for at least portions of most of their games so far, and you get the sense that at some point they are going to get it right and get that rare victory. It could well have happened against Scarlets was this game being played in Parma, but they are less likely to get it right at Parc Y Scarlets in Llanelli against a Scarlets team that is second last, with only Zebre behind them, on the overall log and therefore desperate for a win.

Prediction: Scarlets to win by 6

MUNSTER v VODACOM BULLS (Limerick, Saturday 20.35)

Talking of teams being desperate for a win, that is what makes Munster dangerous in their meeting at Thomond Park with the Vodacom Bulls, who surrendered their winning momentum when they were well beaten by the Glasgow Warriors last week. The Bulls are expecting Johan Goosen and one or two other players back, but it is not so much the personnel but the passivity they played with at times in Glasgow that needs to be addressed. This game is a really difficult one to call but if the Bulls can win in Leinster, which they did in last season’s semifinal, then they are certainly capable of winning in Limerick. It won’t be easy, but they should have heeded the wakeup call of last week.

Prediction: Bulls to scrape it.